TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EDT WED JUL 03 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 03 JUL 2024 AT 1800 UTC:

AS OF THIS WRITING...HURRICANE BERYL CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 145 MPH (230 KPH). BASED
ON THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...BERYL
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE WNW AT 18 MPH (30 KPH)...AND IT
WILL CAUSE VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTION OF THE SOUTHERN
HAITIAN PENINSULA TODAY INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS
MUCH AS 100-250MM COULD BE OBSERVED OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RAINFALL LOCATION AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AND APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THAT BEING
SAID...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 100-200MM WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF COZUMEL AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST AND IT IS AFFECTED BY LAND INTERACTIONS WITH
JAMAICA...AS WELL AS BE AFFECTED BY SOME SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATED THAT BERYL WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY...THEN REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE TO WESTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
TO CAUSE DAILY RAINFALL MAX VALUES THAT COULD BE UP TO 50MM OVER
SONORA TODAY...PORTIONS OF SINALOA WILL RECEIVE UP TO 15MM
TODAY...WHILE PORTIONS OF JALISCO TO NAYARIT WILL HAVE UP TO 40MM.
OTHER PORTIONS OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...FROM CHIAPAS TO VERACRUZ COULD RECEIVE UP TO 25-35MM
TODAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SONORA IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN MAXING OUT NEAR 40-50MM...WHILE OTHER AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL MAXIMA NEAR 15-25MM. THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING MOISTURE TO WESTERN MEXICO HAS A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER 7
DAYS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC OUTLOOK.

A LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF COSTA RICA...WILL
MEANDER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE
DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...CAUSING RAINFALL MAXIMA NEAR 75-100MM OVER COSTA RICA
INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA TODAY. THAT SAID...PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE MAXIMA NEAR 35MM TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER PANAMA INTO COSTA RICA...POSSIBLY CAUSING
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF OVER 50MM. FOR SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL BRING MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE RAINFALL MAXIMA BETWEEN 25-50MM OR SO WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...NEAR 59W AND KNOWN
AS AL96 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. THE
NHC OUTLOOK BY NHC HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM IN 7 DAYS AS OF THIS WRITING. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT OF AL96...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA
NEAR 25-50MM TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST
SURROUNDING AL96...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF IT...THEREFORE THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL HAVE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO
INCREASE...WITH ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD MAX OUT AT 25-50MM EACH
DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OVER CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN THE REST OF THE TROPICAL
REGION...MAX RAINFALL VALUES NEAR 25MM OR LESS OVER NORTHERN
HAITI...MOST OF CUBA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 3-DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RELATING TO BERYL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA.

ALAMO...(WPC)