EMC Synergy Meeting Highlights
August 29, 2005
This meeting was led by Bill Bua, David Michaud, Mary
Hart, Steve Lord, Zoltan Toth,� Dan
Pawlick, Shawna Coakley, Reggie Ready, and Joey Carr.
1. CCS
Dave Michaud reported that NCO is still working on disk storage for blue.� NCO is on track for gpfs installation in a week or two.� They will need a week of testing before the disk is available to users. For the white IBM computer, extra disk storage will be tested during the month of September, for availability in October.�
Implementations are wrapping up for the fiscal year.� These include:
� Global ensemble implementation extending T126 resolution to 384 hrs, with 6 hourly output, which was implemented in mid-August
� The new RTG-SST analysis
� The extratropical cyclone tracker�
� The implementation of some short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) changes (for Wednesday, 31 August 2005), including
o Extension of the forecast to 87 hrs., to match the NAM, and
o Additional post processed products
� The new 3x air quality model, also scheduled for Wednesday, 31 August 2005.�
� HYCOM ocean model, estimated for Oct 2005
o Still working on quality of product, with good progress being made.
� For the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC):
o Wave steepness, to be incorporated into files for OPC in next two weeks.�
o Wave ensemble mean/spread and probability graphics, which are now available on CCS.� A notice will be sent out so that products can be evaluated.
The TOC moratorium continues thru Feb 06.� We currently have issues getting products to the field that had become available starting at the beginning of August. Products are now 30-60 min late getting out every day.� NCEP and TOC are working on this timing problem, but that is taking time away from the work that was to be completed during the moratorium.� As a result, the moratorium on new products may slip into March 2006.
2. NOTES
FROM EMC
2a.
Global Modeling Branch:
Parallels being tested include data
assimilation changes (addition of NOAA 18 data, better assimilation of AIRS
data).� GSI also being worked on, but is
not ready for outside assessment.�
2b.
Mesoscale Modeling Branch (MMB):
Geoff DiMego reported that the MMB is
working to resolve differences between the WRF/NMM and NAM (a cold bias).� In particular, they are working to isolate
the source of this cold bias.� There are
still problems with the amount of time it takes to run the WRF/NMM, and IBM is
looking into this.� Geoff noted that the
WRF/NMM cycled system is using GSI, with some positive results for tropical
vortex forecasting.� No relocation of
tropical systems for initial state is being done yet.� In the data assimilation realm, Level 2 radial winds are almost
ready for incorporation into the NAM Data Assimilation System (NDAS); testing
now is going on without QC.
2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System:
Zoltan Toth reported on the implementation
of the new MREF two weeks ago (see NCO above).�
The MREF did very well w/Katrina.�
It got the New Orleans area landfall about 3 days prior to its
occurrence.� Future Plans:� changes to system later this year or early
2006.�
On the combined NCEP/Canadian North American
Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS):�
NCEP/EMC is looking into doubling the number of NCEP members per cycle
to 20.� Additionally, they are checking
into some changes to the structure of output, including moving to GRIB2 to
conserve disk space.� There may be some
problems with having sufficient CPU time for doubling of membership per cycle;
stay tuned.� Some initial testing is to
be done on the Ensemble Transform technique for determining optimal initial
condition perturbations.�
NAEFS:�
Merging of the NCEP and Canadian ensembles is on schedule, but the TOC
moratorium may delay implementation. Arrangements will be made if there is a
problem with TOC to deal with schedule.�
2d. Short Range Ensemble Prediction System:
Changes to be implemented this week will not affect SREF forecast quality but will improve its usefulness.� These include the extension of forecast time to 87 hrs, and some post processing product changes.� Six new members using the WRF model structure are to be added in October 2005.� These are running now experimentally.� There is a control with a bred perturbation pair for a WRF version with ARW/Eulerian Mass (EM) and NCAR physics, the other with NMM with NCEP physics.� Both have Ferrier microphysics.
2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (MMAB):
No report other than what is discussed in NCO.�
3.� Input to EMC and NCO
None to report.
4. The next meeting will
be held Monday Sept. 26, 2005 at noon in room 209 with remote conference
capability.