Table of contents |
Convection and Mesoscale Convective Systems |
Scale Characteristics of MCSs |
On the evolution, shape and cell movement of MCSs |
Propagation and movement |
An example of a backbuilding MCS |
The original vector method |
The revised vector method |
Exercise I.� Forecasting convective movement |
Exercise 2. Forecasting convective movement |
An ingredients based methodology for predicting convective rainfall. |
How long will an MCS last before dissipation |
Original Maddox et al. MCS arch-types associated with flash flooding |
Synoptic type heavy rainfall events |
Frontal type heavy rainfall events |
Mesohigh type heavy rainfall events |
Use of Climatological thickness |
�saturated thickness� concept |
A few thoughts about elevated convection |
Synoptic Scale Circulation Systems |
Latent heat and the generation of mesoscale convective vortices |
A mesoscale convective vortex exercise |
Rainfall rates, vertical moisture flux and precipitation efficiency |
Regions of weak inertial stability |
Western U.S. heavy rains.� Overview |
Maddox type I |
East slope of the front range events |
Maddox Type IV events |
Hurricanes and heavy rainfall |
Chappell deformation type heavy rainfall event |
An example of a warm season western flash flood |
Maddox type II |
Rainfall at Landfall |
Kraft rule of thumb |
TRaP rainfall |
Rainfall primarily west of� track storms |
Rainfall primarily east of� track storms |
East Pacific Storms |
Effects over southwestern U.S. |
Effects over Texas and Oklahoma |
Hurricanes and the Appalachians |
References |
When is a forward propagating MCS likely |
More on hurricanes and the Appalachians, an exercise |
Hugo and Fran, a quick comparison |
A forecast exercise, using pattern recognition and ensemble guidance to predict an heavy rainfall event |
West coast cold season heavy rainfall events. |
Role of tropical convection and atmospheric rivers |
Southern California pattern |
Using climatoglical anomalies along the west coast |
A case study |
Leeside heavy rainfall events-spillover events |
Weakening tropical storms and depressions |
Heavy rainfall forecasting training manual |
The information in this training package is best viewed using Internet Explorer as some animation files do not work properly using Mozilla |
A big thanks to those who helped collect data for cases used in this manual (Rich Grumm and Mike Bodner in particular) and to the many authors of the journal and� preprint articles that were used to illustrate concepts discussed within the manual.� Also,� thanks to the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Digest which which were both sources of material used within various parts of the manual.� Finally,� thanks to Ed Danaher and Jim Hoke for supporting the project.� |
Wes Junker,� HPC Hydrometeorological Testbed/IM Systems Group |
Published in 2008 |