Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed May 07 2025

Valid 00Z Thu May 08 2025 - 00Z Sat May 10 2025

...Widespread showers and storms to continue to bring the threat for flash
flooding along the Gulf Coast though the end of the work week...

...The chances for heavy rainfall will return  across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast on Friday and Saturday with a cold front passage...

...Well above average temperatures are forecast across the West and
Northern Plains across the next several days...

 A lingering frontal boundary will continue chances for thunderstorms and
locally heavy rain across the central and eastern Gulf Coast on Thursday
and Friday. Storms that develop will be capable of dropping a few inches
of rain in a short amount of time and could bring scattered flash
flooding, especially over saturated areas that saw previous rounds of
heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall is likely to then persist across the
Florida Panhandle and peninsula into the weekend as an upper-level low
slows down over the region. Updates to the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks may
be needed. Meanwhile, central and south Texas could see another cluster of
storms arrive Thursday into Friday with a disturbance dropping southward.
Some flash flooding is possible with these storms given the previous days'
rainfall.

The Storm Prediction Center has a few areas highlighted for the potential
of severe storms. The first area to focus on will be on the southern half
of Texas for Thursday and Friday. An MCS, or line of strong storms, may
bring strong winds, some large hail, and a tornado or two can not be ruled
out. Strong storms will also be possible Friday across Florida, the Deep
South, and the Appalachians. A Slight Risk for severe weather is focused
around the southern Appalachians for the hazards of severe hail and
damaging winds. Areas outside this region will see a less likely chance of
strong winds and hail. A Marginal Risk for strong storms will persist
across the Southeast on Saturday.

A cold front will swing southward towards the East Coast Thursday
afternoon-Saturday. A band of moderate to heavy rain is expected to form
over flood sensitive regions of the interior Northeast, particularly over
areas in terrain such as the Poconos and Catskills where some scattered
flash flooding may occur. The urban corridors have a more isolated risk of
flash flood potential per the latest forecast. In all, 2-3 inches of
rainfall may fall across the Northeast before the system leaves the area
on Saturday.

The West Coast to the northern Plains will feel well-above average warmth
as high pressure and mid-level ridging take control over the region.
Temperatures on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be as much as 10-25
degrees above average. High temperatures in the 90s and 100s will be
present across the Desert Southwest; the Sacramento Valley region of
California may see upper 90s possible over the next few days. By Friday
and Saturday, much of the Mountain West will see high temperatures in the
middle 80s, with slightly cooler conditions along the Pacific Coast and in
the mountains. The northern Plains will see temperatures in the middle 80s
in the short term period. This part of the country may have temperatures
near 20 to even 30 degrees warmer than average for May. For rain chances,
most areas in the West will be dry. However, a weak frontal passage
attempt across the Northwest and Great Basin could bring the chances for a
few showers and storms. Additionally, lingering moisture will bring
precipitation chances across New Mexico and Colorado.

Last but not least, the Great Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will see
cooler and drier weather by the end of the work week once high pressure
settles in behind a cold front passage on Friday.
  
Wilder


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