Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 30 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 02 2024

...Dangerously hot conditions will continue for the Southeast through the
end of the weekend, while simmering heat builds across the southern Plains
and California's Central Valley early this week...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat for the East Coast today...

...Showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners/Southwest over the next
few days; wet weather returns to the upper Midwest by Monday...


The transition to July will continue to feature areas of potentially
dangerous heat throughout parts of the southern U.S. and California. At
the upper levels, higher pressure over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will focus much of the heat over the south-central U.S.
over the next few days before ridging begins to build toward the West
Coast by Tuesday. This equates to high temperatures in the mid-to-upper
90s today from the Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains. This level of heat
and the potential for maximum temperatures into the low 100s are expected
to remain throughout the south-central U.S. through at least Tuesday,
while much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic cools off behind a cold
front. Overnight temperatures are expected to be quite warm over the
southern Plains and not offer much time for relief after scorching daytime
temperatures. In fact, several daily warm minimum temperature records
could be broken/tied over the next few days in this region. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently stretch from Texas to New Jersey.
For California, a dangerous and long-duration heat event is forecast to
begin on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the triple digits, which
has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Watches to be posted. These
readings will impact interior valley locations and areas away from the
immediate coastline. Residents and visitors are urged to follow proper
heat safety as this level of heat could be deadly for anyone without
effective cooling.

Thunderstorms and instances of heavy rain are forecast to impact parts of
the East Coast, Midwest, and Four Corners/Southwest over the next few
days. A potent cold front ushering in a comfortable airmass to the Great
Lakes and Midwest today will continue to trek towards the East Coast while
sparking numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could turn
severe between Maine and the Carolinas, with damaging wind gusts the
primary weather hazard. Heavy rain could also lead to isolated flash
floods between New England and the Southeast. This same frontal boundary
is anticipated to focus additional thunderstorm chances on Monday across
the Southeast. The flash flood threat is expected to be highest across
coastal South Carolina and southeast Georgia, where slow-moving storms
could produce a few inches of rainfall in a very short period of time.

The other notable weather system impacting the Lower 48 at the midway
point of the year is forecast to push from the Intermountain West to the
upper Midwest by early this week. Lingering rainfall chances and the
potential for flash flooding is expected to continue as the upper trough
traversing the western U.S. maintains a fresh flow of moisture-rich air
into the Southwest and southern Rockies. Flash Flood Watches remain in
effect across parts of New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah. On the dry side of
the system, gusty winds and low relative humidity are anticipated to
create Critical Fire Weather across parts of the central Great Basin
today. Meanwhile, areas of robust thunderstorms could turn severe by this
evening throughout the northern High Plains as an area of low pressure
develops. This low pressure system is then forecast to spread unsettled
weather into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. Scattered
severe thunderstorms are possible, with an elevated threat for tornadoes,
damaging wind gusts, and large hail over parts of central Nebraska. For
the upper Midwest, any heavy rain will be unwelcome as ongoing river
flooding impacts the region. Any additional rainfall could exacerbate
flooding concerns, with the potential for numerous thunderstorms creating
an increasing flash flood risk for this part of the country. As the system
continues to progress eastward on Tuesday and an attached cold front slows
its forward progress over the Midwest and central Plains, additional
chances for severe weather and heavy rain are expected to continue.

Snell


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