Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2024
Valid 00Z Tue Jul 02 2024 - 00Z Thu Jul 04 2024
...Dangerously hot conditions will continue across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, while simmering heat builds throughout
California's Central Valley starting Tuesday...
...Severe thunderstorms and heavy to Excessive Rainfall expected over
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through Tuesday night...
July kicks off with anomalous and potentially dangerous heat impacting the
south-central U.S. and portions of the West Coast. As of this afternoon,
over 60 million residents are under heat-related watches, warnings, and
advisories. Upper-level troughing remains situated over the Northern
Rockies/Plains while ridging expands across the southern tier states. For
the Central U.S., high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper
90s and low 100s across the southern Plains through midweek. When combined
with elevated humidity levels, heat indices are forecast to rise into the
110s across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently span from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
States. After enjoying a refreshing start to the workweek, the Midwest and
East Coast can expect a gradual return to muggy summer warmth by Wednesday
as surface high pressure reorients itself off the East Coast and ushers in
southerly flow. Extreme heat building throughout the West Coast and more
specifically interior California this week will also be particularly
dangerous for those without effective cooling. High temperatures away from
the immediate coastline are forecast to reach into the 100-110F range,
which could break numerous daily records in the San Joaquin and Sacramento
Valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and
Heat Advisories go into effect as early as Tuesday and stretch from
southern Oregon to the low desert of southeast California. The duration of
this heat wave is concerning as the current forecast keeps scorching
conditions in place through at least the end of the week. This level of
heat could pose a danger to the public if proper heat safety is not
followed. This includes staying hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in
properly air-conditioned buildings. Additionally, it is very important to
check on vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors to confirm their safety.
Additionally, a storm system exiting the Northern Rockies this morning is
anticipated to create some pre-Independence Day fireworks across the
Northern Plains and Midwest through Tuesday as the threat of heavy rain
and severe weather slides eastward with time. Severe thunderstorm chances
are centered over Nebraska South Dakota tonight, with neighboring states
included in the potential for potent thunderstorms capable of containing
damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail. Of potentially greater concern
throughout the Upper Mississippi Valley is the prospect for more heavy
rainfall over saturated soils and swollen rivers. As approaching frontal
boundaries provide a focus for several clusters of thunderstorms, areas of
intense rainfall rates are possible throughout the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest tonight before sliding gradually eastward on Tuesday, but
still remaining centered over the Midwest. Probabilities for at least 1
inch of rain are high (70-90%) for much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
southern Minnesota, central/southern Wisconsin, and northwest Illinois
through Tuesday. This next round of heavy rain could create instances of
flash flooding as well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding across areas
still recovering from last week's heavy rainfall. There's an Enhanced Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms from southern Iowa into northern Missouri and into
far northeastern Kansas on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely
threat according to the Storm Prediction Center.
Continued sufficient moisture content over the Southwest and southern
Rockies will also aid in the development of daily showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing localized instances of flash flooding
through midweek. Regions most likely to be affected by scattered downpours
include Arizona, New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado, with burn scars
and sensitive terrain the most at risk for flash flooding.
Kebede/Snell
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