Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024 - 00Z Tue Jul 02 2024

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat for the East Coast on
Sunday...

...Showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners/Southwest over the next
few days; wet weather returns to the upper Midwest by Monday...

...Dangerously hot conditions will continue for the Southeast this
weekend...

A cold front moving through the Great Lakes this evening will bring in
cooler and drier air to the region for Sunday, with showers and
thunderstorms out ahead of it over much of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic. By Sunday, the front will push closer to the I-95 corridor,
focusing the chance for thunderstorms (some severe per the Storm
Prediction Center) toward the coast in the Northeast, but also into the
Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. Isolated flash flooding is
possible in some areas that experience heavier rainfall in a short amount
of time. Farther south, the frontal boundary will slip into the Mid-South
and TN Valley, with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Farther
west, tail-end of the same frontal boundary will help fire off mainly
afternoon showers and storms over the Four Corners region and across much
of the Rockies. Flash flooding is possible in some areas, especially in
more sensitive regions with steep terrain.

Over the northern Rockies, a system will bring an expanding area of rain
and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday, moving into eastern Montana where
some severe weather is possible. By late Sunday into Monday, potentially
heavier rainfall will push into the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt where Flash
Flooding will be possible over areas that have seen well above normal
rainfall recently. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding along
with new and renewed river rises are possible per the National Water
Center.

Temperatures will be quite variable across the Lower 48 over the next two
days. Much of the northern tier -- from the northern Plains eastward to
the Great Lakes -- will see below normal temperatures on Sunday into
Monday with highs generally only in the 70s. Ahead of the front to the
east, warm/hot temperatures in the 80s/90s on Sunday near the East Coast
will be replaced by 70s/80s on Monday. The hottest temperatures will be
located over much of the southern Plains to the Southeast, as well as into
the Desert Southwest. Though daytime maximum temperatures may not break
daily records, overnight low temperatures will remain quite warm (only in
the 70s to around 80 degrees) due to high levels of humidity. This will be
reflected during the day by high heat indices in the low 100s. By Monday,
much of interior California will start to see temperatures near and over
100 degrees, as will parts of the central Plains.

Fracasso


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